York, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

284
FXUS63 KGID 160008
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
708 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday looks to bring another round of strong west-northwest
  winds to the forecast area. Gusts of 40-50 MPH are not out of
  the question, with the strongest speeds expected to be mainly
  along/north of I-80. Most locations will stay dry, but similar
  to this afternoon, cannot rule out some isolated/scattered
  showers across northern locations.

- The overall nicest day looks to be Saturday. There is a break
  in the gusty winds (which look to pick back up Sunday), with
  highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 30s-40s.

- A more active upper level pattern moves onto the Plains for
  Sunday into the start of the new work week, and strong-severe
  storms look likely...with one main question being exactly
  where. Portions of the forecast area are outlooked by SPC for
  severe weather potential...Sunday across SSW locations, Monday
  across ESE locations. Still plenty of uncertainty and details
  to iron out in the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Currently...

Easy to pick out the main feature of interest for the region
this afternoon...with upper air and satellite data showing an
area low pressure continuing to slide NNE through eastern SD.
The main impact from this system as far as precip/severe weather
goes remains well east of the forecast area...but with the
system in the vicinity, combined with daytime heating leading to
steeper lapse rates/increased mixing potential and at least a
few hundred j/kg of instability...have seen some
isolated/scattered showers and a few weak storms shifting east
across portions of the area mainly along/north of I-80. This
activity will continue through the rest of the
afternoon...eventually waning with the loss of daytime heating.
At the surface, low pressure is set up near the eastern SD/ND
border...and though the pressure gradient across the forecast
area isn`t as tight as earlier today, thanks to that increased
mixing potential, speeds remain gusty area-wide. These west-
northwest winds were gusting widely in the 35-45 MPH range (a
few closer to 50 MPH), especially through roughly midday...most
gusts here at mid-afternoon are more in the 25-35 MPH range. As
far as temperatures go...if anything, spots across northern
portions where there are more clouds/spotty precip may fall a
bit short of expectations...otherwise most of the area looks to
reach the mid 70s- near 80.

Tonight through Friday....

For the short-term period...overall it`s a dry period, with
models in good agreement showing that upper level low pressure
system lingering over the north central CONUS, keeping flow
over the area west-northwesterly. The lone exception to the dry
forecast is during the afternoon hours Friday...which looks to
be similar to what is currently going on, peak heating/steeper
lapse rates allowing for the development of isolated/sct
activity. Should affect a fairly small area, forecast has 20
percent chances over locations along/north of HWY 92.

Outside of those small chances...the main story for this period
lies with another round of strong winds for the daytime hours
Friday. Later this evening-tonight, models show a lobe of
shortwave energy rotating around the west and southern periphery
of the main upper level low pressure system...driving a
reinforcing cool front across the region. With the loss of
daytime heating/steeper lapse rates, the current gusty winds are
expected to diminish to closer to 10-15 MPH...ramping back up
from west-east closer to sunrise as that front passes through.
Similar to today, with the main sfc low lingering to our NNE,
expecting WNWrly winds through the day...with the main change in
this period being to increase wind speeds. Models showing the
increased mixing once again, this time with winds to tap into
aloft potentially being a touch stronger...especially in
northern areas. Increasing cloud cover sinking south could
hinder things...but gusts in those northern areas near 45-50 MPH
are certaintly not out of the question. Forecast highs for
Friday are in the mid 60s north to upper 70s south.

Any precip that does develop during the afternoon will wane in
the evening, with dry conditions through the rest of the
overnight hours. Cloud cover is expected to diminish...along
with winds...and overnight lows for most of the area look to
drop into the low-mid 40s.

This weekend on into the new work week...

If you`re looking for another day with a good temp/wind
combination with no precipitation chances...Saturday looks to
be your day. That upper level low finally gets more of a push
east...allowing for broad ridging to slide onto the Plains,
keeping precipitation chances out of the area. Expecting mostly
sunny-partly cloudy skies...with lighter winds closer to the
10-15 MPH range. Winds start the day northerly, turning easterly
with time as a sfc ridge axis slides off to our east and low
pressure starts deepening over the High Plains. Forecast highs
are remain in the 70s...while dewpoints sit in the 30s-40s.

As we get into Sunday and the first half of the new work
week...thunderstorm chances return to the forecast...and while
not calling for a CWA-wide soaking of a few inches, these
chances Sunday-Tuesday currently look better than most we`ve
had lately. They aren`t a slam dunk though...as always when
talking about a timeframe still 4+ days out...lot of details to
iron out in the models, so overall confidence in certainly not
high at this point.

Through the first half of the weekend, models showing upper
level troughing digging south across the western CONUS, and by
12Z Sunday, models are showing low pressure over the Pac NW,
with troughing/shortwave energy extending southward into the
Desert SW. Through the day on Sunday, current models show that
Pac NW low sinking SE, with that energy in the Desert SW
swinging northeast out onto the Central Plains. It`s arrival
with drive the first potential bout of thunderstorms (some
strong-severe possible)...with a big question lying with exactly
the main sfc warm front/dryline set up. Sunday night on into
Monday, models showing the potential for a bit of rotating
`dumbbell` action...as that first disturbance deepens somewhere
over the central CONUS (is it more central or northern Plains?),
what was that closed low over the Pac NW/sinking south, looks
to fill as it swings around the southern side of that newly
developed low...and it will be another driver behind
thunderstorm activity, big question is exactly where. Eventually
becoming more phased together...models show the system sticking
around through the day on Tuesday, with higher PoPs finally
lowering Tuesday evening/night.

Especially for those Sunday and Monday chances...strong-severe
storms look likely, but whether or not/how much the forecast
area is impacted will be dependent not only on the
timing/location of these upper level disturbances...but where
the surface features/better moisture/instability end up setting
up. For Sunday...the SSWrn portions of the area are included in
the SPC Day 4 15 percent outlook area...Monday that outlooked
area shifts to roughly the ESErn half of the area.

Outside of preciptiation chances...forecast highs for Sun-Mon
are currently in the 70s-80s, dropping into the 60s-70s for
Tue-Wed as the main system finally moves out of the area. With
strengthening surface low pressure/frontal boundaries expected,
forecast wind speeds start picking up Sunday out of the SE ahead
of the system...with more uncertainty as we get into Monday.
Will be interesting to see how models trend with all of this in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 706 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Despite considerable clouds especially late in the period
Friday afternoon, confidence is very high in VFR
ceiling/visibility throughout the period, and in precipitation-
free weather through at least the vast majority of it. By far
the main issue will be downright-windy conditions especially
Friday daytime.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
Especially Friday afternoon, expect a considerable amount of
lower-end VFR clouds (BKN060 in current TAFs), but confidence is
high that ceiling will indeed remain VFR. Precipitation-wise, a
few spotty brief sprinkles/light showers cannot be completely
ruled out (especially Friday afternoon), but confidence in
occurrence (no more than 10-20 percent chance) is low enough to
omit any official TAF mention at this time.

- Winds:
Direction will remain rather consistent through the
period...generally some variation of westerly...although
trending a bit more northwesterly late in the period Friday
afternoon. Speed-wise, these first few hours this evening will
remain breezy with gusts still up into the 25+KT range. Then,
the overall-lightest winds of the period will occur mainly
02-08Z with sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 12KT. However,
beyond that, speeds gradually ramp back up, peaking in intensity
especially 17Z and beyond with sustained 30-35KT/gusts 40-45KT
common.

On one final wind "side note": a low level wind shear (LLWS)
group was considered for mainly the 09-13Z time frame as west-
northwest winds in the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL are projected to peak
around 40KT. However, surface winds appear to be JUST strong
enough to keep total shear magnitude from reaching the 30+KT
threshold typically used for TAF inclusion (instead peaking
mainly 25-29KT).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch